美国牵头构建关键矿产“小圈子”不会顺利

Group 1 - The 2026 Africa Mining Investment Conference commenced in Cape Town, South Africa, featuring high-level dialogues and investment forums [3] - The United States, EU, and Japan have formed a strategic partnership on critical minerals, aiming to establish a "de-risked" supply chain and address global market distortions [3][4] - The Forum on Resource Geopolitics and Economic Security (FORGE) initiative aims to reshape supply chains by coordinating procurement among member countries to ensure price stability and protect local processing projects [4][5] Group 2 - Resource supply countries include Australia, Canada, Indonesia, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while technology and investment countries include the US, Japan, South Korea, and parts of the EU [4] - South Korea has been appointed as the first chair of FORGE, tasked with initial organizational coordination until June 2026 [4] - The FORGE alliance plans to reach a memorandum of understanding on critical minerals by late February to early March 2026, establishing a comprehensive supply chain and trade rules independent of major competitors [4][5] Group 3 - The US has launched the "Project Vault," a $12 billion initiative to procure critical minerals for national strategic reserves, ensuring stable supply for advanced manufacturing sectors [6][7] - The plan focuses on approximately 50 essential minerals, particularly those used in clean energy technologies, aligning with the US Department of Energy and Department of Defense's critical mineral lists [6] - Australia has introduced a $1.2 billion National Critical Minerals Stockpile plan to secure essential minerals for its clean energy and defense industries, enhancing its reliability within the FORGE alliance [7][8] Group 4 - The US-Mexico Critical Minerals Action Plan aims to integrate Mexico's mineral resources into a North American supply chain, focusing on clean energy minerals and potential price adjustment mechanisms [10][11] - This plan represents a specific implementation of the FORGE initiative in North America, ensuring that Mexico's resources serve the supply chain needs of the US and its allies [11][12] - The upcoming USMCA review will address strengthening North American supply chains for critical minerals and electric vehicle components, potentially reshaping trade rules [12] Group 5 - The FORGE initiative and associated plans may disrupt global trade norms, as they introduce mechanisms that could interfere with market pricing and violate WTO principles [13][14] - The US's approach may lead to inefficiencies and increased costs in the global economy, as countries may be forced to choose sides, impacting resource sovereignty and development paths [14]