TD Cowen Worried About Rising Competition in the Protein Shake Category, Leading to TP Cut on BellRing Brands (BRBR)

Core Viewpoint - BellRing Brands Inc. is facing increased competitive pressure in the ready-to-drink (RTD) protein shake market, leading to a target price cut by TD Cowens despite retaining a Hold rating on the stock [1][3]. Group 1: Financial Performance - BellRing's revenue growth has slowed to 1% in Q1-FY2026, with the RTD protein shake segment experiencing a 2.2% year-over-year decline [3]. - Sales in the warehouse club channel have significantly dropped by 14.2% year-over-year, indicating a challenging market environment [3]. - Retailers' inventory levels have increased in seven of the last eight quarters, suggesting that products are remaining on shelves longer [4]. Group 2: Competitive Landscape - TD Cowens highlighted rising competitive intensity in the protein shake category as a primary reason for the target price reduction [1][3]. - The company is responding to weak sales by increasing promotional activities, which may boost revenue but could also negatively impact profit margins due to higher costs of whey protein [5]. Group 3: Company Overview - BellRing Brands Inc. distributes RTD protein shakes, ready-to-mix powders, and nutrition bars through various channels, including warehouse clubs, drugstores, e-commerce, specialty stores, and convenience stores [6].