创力集团业绩预降股价震荡，行业竞争与转型预期博弈

Core Viewpoint - The company Chuangli Group (603012) experienced stock price fluctuations following the announcement of a profit warning for 2025, influenced by fundamental performance pressures, market expectations regarding transformation, and short-term capital divergence [1] Financial Performance - For 2025, the company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders of between 100 million to 120 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 43.96% to 53.30%. The decline is primarily due to intensified industry competition leading to reduced gross margins and delays in the delivery of large-scale projects affecting current revenue [2] - In the first three quarters of 2025, the company's net profit attributable to shareholders has already decreased by 38.36%, with gross margin dropping to 36.89%. Accounts receivable reached 2.997 billion yuan, highlighting significant cash flow issues [2] Stock Performance - Despite the pressure on performance, the stock price has increased by 33.94% since January 2026. For instance, on January 29, the stock rose by 2.12% with a net inflow of 9.2966 million yuan; however, on February 4, it fell by 2.06% with a net outflow of 3.5435 million yuan, indicating notable short-term capital divergence [3] - The stock has experienced a price fluctuation range of 19.41%, reflecting the market's balancing act between negative performance news and potential transformation expectations [3] Industry Policy and Environment - The intelligent coal mining policy supports the company's long-term transformation; however, short-term intensified competition and fluctuations in capital expenditure among coal enterprises may impact order demand. The company is advancing a smart mining solution in collaboration with Huawei, but the effectiveness of this transformation will require time to validate [4] Financial and Technical Aspects - As of February 11, the stock price is oscillating between the upper and lower bands of the Bollinger Bands, with the MACD indicator showing short-term divergence. The KDJ line indicates a potential correction pressure following an overbought condition, which may exacerbate volatility [5]