The jobs picture still looks muddy, even with surprisingly strong January growth

Labor Market Overview - January job gains totaled 130,000 nonfarm payrolls, with the unemployment rate decreasing to 4.3%, the lowest since August [2] - Despite these gains, the labor market remains stagnant, with significant revisions indicating virtually no job growth in the second half of 2025 [2][3] - The concentration of job growth in a few sectors raises concerns about the overall health of the labor market [3] Economic Projections - The chief economist at EY-Parthenon anticipates subdued job growth for the remainder of 2026, potentially not exceeding 50,000 jobs per month [3] - Revisions from the Bureau of Labor Statistics revealed an average job gain of only 15,000 per month last year, with a net loss of 1,000 jobs in the last six months [3] Consumer Income and Spending - Average hourly earnings increased by 0.4% in January, but the annual gain of 3.71% is the lowest since July 2024, indicating pressure on consumer income [5] - Retail sales were unexpectedly flat in December, which could pose risks given that consumer spending accounts for over two-thirds of U.S. economic activity [5] - The combination of stagnant job growth and income pressures suggests a shift towards an "income-less expansion," affecting many families' financial stability [6]