墨西哥市场2026年宏观事件前瞻：协定审查与货币政策成焦点

Macro Events Impacting the Mexican Market - The Mexican market may experience volatility due to macro events that could affect related funds and stocks [1] Industry Policy and Environment - The US-Mexico-Canada Agreement (USMCA) is set for a formal review in the summer of 2026, with potential disputes over origin rules, labor, and energy issues possibly increasing market volatility [2] Policy Situation - The Bank of Mexico plans to lower the benchmark interest rate to 7% by December 2025, with expectations of further reduction to around 6.5% in 2026; inflation is projected to return to the 3% target range by the third quarter of 2026, influenced by domestic and external economic data [3] Capital Flow Trends - As of early February 2026, investors are increasingly shifting towards international equity funds, with emerging markets experiencing net inflows for the seventh consecutive week, which may indirectly affect asset allocation in Mexico [4] Future Development - External uncertainties, including the Federal Reserve's policy pace, expectations of interest rate hikes by the Bank of Japan, and changes in carry trade structures, may exert short-term pressure on the peso exchange rate and capital flows, impacting the stock market; Mexico's economy is expected to recover moderately in 2026, but attention is needed on trade policies and inflation risks [5]