特雷克斯股价大涨16.57%，业绩预期向好与行业景气度提升成主因

Core Viewpoint - Trex's stock price surged by 16.57% on February 11, closing at $69.08, driven by positive earnings expectations, valuation advantages, improved industry conditions, and institutional optimism [1] Company Performance - Trex's Q4 2025 earnings report indicates a positive outlook, with projected revenue of $1.298 billion, a year-on-year increase of 4.62%, and an expected EPS of $1.00, marking a return to profitability [2] - The company's financial structure has improved significantly, with the debt-to-equity ratio decreasing from 135.7% five years ago to 32.09%, well below the industry average of 194.31%, enhancing its debt repayment capacity [2] - Operating cash flow for Q3 2025 reached $154 million, with free cash flow of $130 million, supporting dividend payments and share buyback plans [2] Company Valuation - As of the earnings report, Trex's trailing twelve months (TTM) P/E ratio was 7.38 and P/S ratio was 0.67, both lower than the industry weighted averages of 18.03 and 2.86, respectively, indicating relatively low valuation [3] - The positive earnings outlook has attracted capital inflow, with trading volume significantly increasing to $327 million and a turnover rate of 4.23%, reflecting active market participation [3] Industry Policy and Environment - In early February 2026, the U.S. manufacturing PMI rose to 52.6, indicating a return to expansion, which enhances the outlook for traditional manufacturing sectors [4] - As a top 50 global engineering machinery company (ranked 16th in 2025), Trex stands to benefit from increased capital expenditure in manufacturing and improved supply chain conditions [4] Institutional View - Citigroup raised Trex's target price from $52 to $62 on January 13, 2026, maintaining a "hold" rating, reflecting market recognition of the company's progress in cost control and cash flow improvement, boosting investor confidence [5] Future Development - Despite the positive short-term earnings outlook, Trex experienced a year-on-year revenue decline of 6.05% and a 16.57% drop in EPS for Q3 2025, indicating challenges from global supply chain fluctuations and intensified industry competition [6]