Tilson’s “Public Auction” — 1,000% Opportunity?

Core Insights - The U.S. government is auctioning off rights to 245 million acres of public land for geothermal energy development, attracting interest from major companies like Google, Meta, and Shell, as well as influential billionaires [1][4][5] - The Bureau of Land Management (BLM) is facilitating the increase of geothermal projects, with a notable auction planned for Spring 2025 [2][3] - Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) technology is being touted as a revolutionary energy breakthrough, with potential to disrupt global energy markets [7][10][12] Geothermal Energy Development - Geothermal leasing activity is currently low compared to oil and gas, with only a few states actively participating in leasing [3] - The upcoming auction in New Mexico is part of a broader trend of increasing interest in geothermal energy, with land leases spiking significantly in recent years [14][15] - The U.S. Department of Energy is heavily supporting EGS technology, aiming for a 90% cost reduction by 2035 [13] Investment Opportunities - Companies like Ormat Technologies are positioned as leaders in the geothermal sector, having a long history and significant market presence [19][20] - Other firms, such as GE Vernova, are also involved in geothermal projects, including contracts with major corporations like Amazon and the U.S. Army [26][29] - The geothermal sector is attracting significant investment, with early-stage companies like Fervo Energy gaining attention for their innovative approaches [32] Market Dynamics - The geothermal market is characterized by high valuations, with companies trading at elevated price-to-earnings ratios, reflecting investor enthusiasm [22][29] - The potential for growth in geothermal energy is substantial, but companies may face challenges in sustaining revenue and earnings growth [21][25] - The historical context of geothermal investments shows a cycle of enthusiasm and consolidation, with many past players exiting the market [39]