Dollar Pressured by Weakness in US Economic News

Core Insights - The dollar index has decreased to a one-week low, down by 0.05%, primarily due to falling T-note yields following weaker-than-expected US economic reports, which has raised expectations for a potential easing of monetary policy by the Federal Reserve [1][3] - The US Q4 employment cost index increased by 0.7% quarter-over-quarter, which is below the expected 0.8% and marks the smallest rise in 4.5 years [2] - US December retail sales remained unchanged month-over-month, falling short of the anticipated 0.4% increase, indicating a slowdown in consumer spending [3] Economic Indicators - The swaps market is pricing in a 22% probability of a 25 basis point rate cut at the upcoming Federal Open Market Committee meeting on March 17-18, with expectations of a total interest rate cut of about 50 basis points by 2026 [4] - The euro has slightly decreased by 0.09% following a dovish statement from the European Central Bank, which suggested that lower interest rates could alleviate inflation and growth pressures caused by higher US tariffs [5] - The yen has appreciated by 0.97% against the dollar, reaching a one-week high, driven by positive signals from the Japanese economy, particularly a significant rise in machine tool orders [6]