壳牌股价创历史新高，化工业务持续亏损成隐忧

Core Viewpoint - Shell's stock price reached a historic high of $80.23, up 9.19% year-to-date, despite ongoing losses in its chemical business, necessitating a comprehensive evaluation of its ability to overcome these challenges [1] Company Fundamentals - Continuous Losses: The chemical business has reported annual losses for four consecutive years, with an adjusted loss of $1.12 billion in 2025 and a quarterly loss of $589 million in Q4 [1] - Low Profit Margins: The average profit margin for the global chemical business in 2025 was $148 per ton, a decrease of $4 year-on-year, further dropping to $140 per ton in Q4 [1] - Asset Adjustment Initiated: The company has sold loss-making assets in Singapore and plans to evaluate high-cost facilities in Europe and the U.S., potentially leading to closures or divestitures [1] Reasons for Stock Price Movement - Strategic Shift: The company is prioritizing the development of liquefied natural gas (LNG) and low-carbon energy, planning to allocate 10% of its capital expenditures by 2030 to low-carbon initiatives and increase shareholder returns to 40-50% of operating cash flow [2] - Financial Resilience: Free cash flow reached $10 billion in Q3 2025, supporting a dividend yield of 3.60% and a share buyback program [2] - Market Optimism: Institutions are optimistic about the growth in LNG demand and cost reductions, targeting cumulative savings of $5-7 billion, which partially offsets the negative impact of the chemical business [2] Recent Company Status - Chemical Legacy Issues: European facilities face high energy costs and carbon tax pressures, with a projected utilization rate of only 76% for chemical facilities in 2025, which may continue to drain cash flow if divestiture progresses slowly [3] - Financial Pressure: The chemical business needs to achieve "free cash flow close to balance," and prolonged low industry profit margins could burden overall profitability due to restructuring costs [3] - Valuation Risks: The current price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) is 13.37, and any expansion of chemical losses or one-time impairments from divestitures could suppress valuation upside [3] Future Development - Shell's stock price surge is primarily attributed to the stability of its energy core business and expectations of strategic transformation, although chemical losses remain a potential drag [4] - Short-term focus should be on the progress of the chemical business restructuring in 2026, including facility closure plans and cost reduction effectiveness, while long-term sustainability hinges on whether LNG growth can fully offset the impact of chemical contraction [4] - Investors are advised to closely monitor upcoming financial reports and management's specific timeline for the disposal of chemical assets [4]