【沥青日报】美伊地缘笼罩下沥青被动跟随油价，节前仓位谨慎控制

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the article indicates that the futures market for asphalt is experiencing fluctuations, with the main contract closing at 3358, reflecting a 0.51% increase from the previous day [29][30] - The current high-end price for heavy asphalt in East China is 3350 yuan/ton, remaining stable, while the low-end price is 3260 yuan/ton, also unchanged, indicating a relatively stable market as the domestic Spring Festival approaches [29][30] - Short-term price movements are influenced by geopolitical changes and market risk preferences, particularly regarding the U.S.-Iran situation, which could lead to increased oil prices and subsequently affect asphalt prices [29][30] Group 2 - Venezuela's state-owned oil company PDVSA has reportedly restored production in the Orinoco heavy oil belt, pushing the country's total crude oil output close to 1 million barrels per day, which may increase competition among Chinese buyers [29][30] - The strategy since January 5 remains unchanged, focusing on near-month oil contracts while monitoring geopolitical developments, and suggesting that the June contract has potential for bullish positions after geopolitical factors subside [30][31] - The first quarter is expected to return to a loose fundamental environment for crude oil, recommending a 3-6 month spread strategy and advocating for long positions in the BU-Brent crack spread based on market conditions [30][31]