新年最惨商品，暴跌近40%，主产国出手救市

Core Viewpoint - Cocoa futures prices have fallen below $3,800, marking the lowest level since October 2023, driven by weak global demand and increased supply [1] Group 1: Price Trends - Cocoa prices have dropped nearly 40% this year, making it the worst-performing commodity [1] - The price decline follows a record annual drop of 48.1% in 2025, with a 70% decrease compared to the peak in May 2024 [1] Group 2: Supply and Demand Dynamics - The imbalance in supply and demand is the primary reason for the current cocoa price crash [3] - European cocoa grinding volume fell to 304,470 tons in Q4 last year, down 8.3% year-on-year, marking the sixth consecutive quarter of decline [3] - Major companies like Mondelez, Hershey, and Kraft Heinz cite cocoa costs as a key factor affecting profits, with Hershey reporting a 60.3% drop in net profit due to cocoa costs [3] Group 3: Inventory and Production Issues - Low purchasing willingness has led to inventory buildup in major cocoa-producing countries, with Côte d'Ivoire's cocoa arrivals reaching 1.263 million tons, a 4.5% increase year-on-year [4] - Ghana's cocoa prices are higher than other producing countries, causing international buyers to abandon purchases, resulting in approximately 50,000 tons of unsold cocoa at Ghana's ports [4] - Forecasts indicate a global cocoa surplus of 287,000 tons in the 2025/26 season and 267,000 tons in 2026/27 [4] Group 4: Industry Responses - Côte d'Ivoire has initiated a strategic operation to buy back thousands of tons of unsold cocoa from warehouses and ports to alleviate pressure on producers [4] - Ghana is accelerating payments to farmers for cocoa beans and exploring new financing models to reduce reliance on raw cocoa bean exports, aiming to enhance local processing and sustainability [5]