Market Overview - The three major indices showed mixed performance, with the ChiNext and Sci-Tech 50 indices dropping over 1%. The trading volume in the Shanghai and Shenzhen markets fell below 2 trillion yuan for the first time in 31 trading days, decreasing by 121.3 billion yuan compared to the previous trading day. Over 3,200 stocks in the market declined, while the chemical sector showed strength, and the glass fiber concept surged. The closing figures were: Shanghai Composite Index up 0.09%, Shenzhen Component Index down 0.35%, and ChiNext down 1.08% [1]. Investment Insights National Investment Securities - National Investment Securities predicts a resurgence of the technology growth style after the Spring Festival, suggesting that historical trends indicate a significant style switch is likely. If the market leans towards value and large caps before the festival, it is expected to shift towards technology growth and small caps afterward. The firm believes that the technology growth style will likely prevail post-Spring Festival, supported by liquidity easing and weak macro fundamentals [2]. CITIC Securities - CITIC Securities notes that precious metals have experienced significant adjustments due to panic triggered by Kevin Warsh's nomination. However, the firm maintains that precious metals will continue to trend upward due to high global debt and increasing geopolitical risks. Basic industrial metals are expected to return to their supply-demand pricing after a brief adjustment, supported by genuine demand from downstream entities. Additionally, the U.S. has initiated a critical mineral reserve plan, highlighting the importance of mineral resources and driving up valuations for resource-related assets [3]. Guosheng Securities - Guosheng Securities highlights six key signals from the central bank's fourth-quarter monetary policy report. Notably, the report emphasizes promoting stable economic growth as a crucial consideration for monetary policy, indicating that a weakening fundamental outlook will likely trigger monetary easing. The report also reflects a cautious approach to interest rate cuts, with a shift from "promoting cost reduction" to "facilitating low-cost operation" in social financing. Furthermore, the report discusses the impact of resident deposit "loss" on liquidity and emphasizes the need for coordinated monetary and fiscal policies to enhance policy effectiveness [4].
券商晨会精华 | 春节后科技成长风格将有望卷土再来