石油焦：偏强震荡呈现结构性分化

Core Viewpoint - The petroleum coke market in China is expected to experience strong fluctuations in 2026, with a structural differentiation in supply and demand, particularly in the low-sulfur coke market, which is likely to remain tight [1] Market Performance - In 2025, the petroleum coke market exhibited a significant upward trend, with prices rising from 1615 RMB/ton on January 1 to 2598.25 RMB/ton by December 31, marking an annual increase of 60.88% [2] - The market followed an "M" shaped trajectory, with a notable price surge before the Spring Festival due to reduced supply and increased downstream stocking demand [2] - In the first half of 2025, prices fluctuated downwards as imported petroleum coke arrived at ports, leading to increased inventory and a cautious demand outlook from downstream buyers [2][3] Supply Dynamics - The growth rate of new petroleum coke production capacity is expected to slow down in 2026, resulting in limited supply increases [5] - Analysts indicate that the rapid expansion phase for delayed coking units ended in 2022, with new capacity growth from 2026 to 2030 expected to be significantly lower than the previous cycle [6] - The total new capacity for delayed coking units from 2026 to 2030 is projected to be 9.5 million tons, primarily concentrated in East China, with most projects likely to be completed between 2027 and 2028 [7] Demand Trends - The demand for petroleum coke is anticipated to grow strongly, driven by stable demand in the aluminum carbon industry and increasing orders for negative electrode materials in energy storage and power applications [8] - The calcination process remains the most critical intermediary step for petroleum coke, with significant demand from downstream industries such as prebaked anodes and graphite electrodes [8] - The negative electrode materials market is expected to continue its growth trajectory, with 2025 production reaching approximately 2.95 million tons and a utilization rate of 77.6% [9] Price Outlook - The supply tightness in low-sulfur coke is expected to lead to sustained high prices, while medium-sulfur coke will rely on traditional industrial demand, and high-sulfur coke prices are likely to remain low due to fuel substitution effects [10] - Overall, the petroleum coke prices in 2026 are projected to exhibit a strong fluctuating trend, with further structural differentiation anticipated [10]