80亿资金涌入，小金属板块迎来新周期？丨每日研选

Core Viewpoint - The small metals sector, particularly tungsten and rare earths, is experiencing significant price increases driven by supply constraints and surging demand from new energy and technology sectors [1][2]. Supply Dynamics - Global supply of small metals is constrained due to declining resource grades, stricter environmental regulations, and delays in new mining projects [1]. - For tungsten, the average ore grade in domestic mines is decreasing, and environmental and safety requirements are limiting effective capacity release. New overseas projects face financing and approval challenges, leading to a projected annual compound growth rate of less than 2% for global tungsten production by 2026 [1]. - The rare earth sector is undergoing supply-side reforms, with improvements in the smelting sector, while tin and antimony are affected by political and security issues in major producing countries like Indonesia and Myanmar [1]. Demand Drivers - The demand for small metals is being driven by three main sectors: photovoltaics, electric vehicles, and artificial intelligence (AI) [2]. - In the photovoltaic sector, the penetration of tungsten wire is rapidly increasing, becoming the mainstream technology for cutting silicon wafers, which boosts high-end tungsten demand [2]. - In the electric vehicle sector, high-performance permanent magnet motors (requiring rare earths), tungsten alloy components, and semiconductors (requiring tin) are contributing to demand growth [2]. - The rise of AI and robotics further solidifies the long-term growth potential for rare earth permanent magnets and high-end tin materials, with technological advancements increasing the metal consumption value per product [2]. Investment Opportunities - Structural opportunities in the small metals industry are becoming clearer, with recommendations to focus on: - The "strategic resources and security" chain, benefiting from global reserve competition and supply tightness in tungsten and rare earth upstream resource companies [2]. - The "new energy innovation application" chain, particularly tungsten wire for photovoltaic cutting and rare earth permanent magnet materials for high-performance motors [2]. - The "AI and intelligent demand" chain, capturing recovery opportunities for tin in the semiconductor sector [2].