Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-12 01:25Group 1: Copper Market - The main copper futures in Shanghai opened higher but closed lower, ending at 102,190 CNY, while London copper peaked at 13,500 USD before retreating to around 13,222 USD [4][14] - The U.S. January non-farm payroll data exceeded market expectations, with 130,000 new jobs added and the unemployment rate dropping to 4.3%, leading to a slight cooling of interest rate cut expectations [4][14] - The increase in copper warehouse receipts by 12,958 tons to 178,900 tons on the Shanghai Futures Exchange and a rise of 3,000 tons in LME copper stocks to 192,100 tons indicate a bearish sentiment in the market [4][14] Group 2: Nickel and Stainless Steel - The U.S. non-farm employment data significantly exceeded expectations, slightly reducing the Fed's interest rate cut outlook, although concerns about data quality limit the impact [5][15] - The demand for Indonesian nickel ore remains strong, while domestic market conditions are constrained by negative feedback in the supply chain, leading to stagnant nickel ore procurement [5][15] - Stainless steel transactions have been relatively weak, with social inventory increasing month-on-month due to pessimistic sentiment in the futures market [5][15] Group 3: Polysilicon - In January, domestic polysilicon production was reported at 102,000 tons, a decrease of 8.3% quarter-on-quarter, with expectations for further reductions to 85,000 tons in February [6][16] - The cancellation of export tax rebates has limited support for downstream sectors, while high costs of auxiliary materials continue to restrict acceptance of silicon materials [6][16] - The current market is low in activity, with future prices expected to be influenced mainly by industry governance and regulatory dynamics [6][16] Group 4: Aluminum - Domestic alumina prices remained stable, with a northern alumina producer halting part of its roasting and leaching capacity, affecting around 4 million tons of normal operating capacity [7][17] - The market is expected to experience a temporary supply-demand mismatch post-holiday, with attention needed on the actual progress of new capacity in Guangxi [7][17] - The aluminum futures market is anticipated to remain in a narrow range, with the 05 contract expected to operate between 2,600 and 2,950 CNY per ton [7][17] Group 5: Zinc and Lead - Zinc futures in Shanghai opened high but closed lower, with the macro environment affected by strong U.S. non-farm data, leading to mixed market sentiment [20] - The supply of lead concentrate remains tight, with some smelters entering production cuts ahead of the holiday, while downstream purchasing has slowed [20][21] - Overall, both zinc and lead markets are expected to experience weak supply-demand dynamics, with lead prices anticipated to fluctuate within a range of 16,500 to 17,500 CNY per ton [20][21] Group 6: Precious Metals - Precious metals initially strengthened but later retraced gains due to strong U.S. employment data, which has pressured interest rate cut expectations [23] - The geopolitical situation in Greenland, with NATO's military actions, has added some support to precious metals due to increased risks [23] - Gold is recommended for long-term holding, while silver, platinum, and palladium require a more cautious approach [23]