中信建投期货：2月12日农产品早报

Group 1: Corn Market - The corn May contract closed at 2316 CNY/ton, with a daily increase of 1.58%. The increase in warehouse receipts by 23,130 contracts reflects a bullish sentiment due to factors like warming temperatures and grain sales progress [4][17] - Downstream demand is weak, with deep processing enterprises issuing notices to stop or reduce purchases, and feed companies primarily executing previous contracts [5][18] - Market focus post-holiday will be on whether the northeastern grain supply increases significantly with rising temperatures and the actual demand elasticity of corporate inventories [6][19] - It is expected that the corn March contract will fluctuate within the range of 2250–2275 CNY/ton before the holiday, with directional choices pending further verification of supply and demand post-holiday [7][20] Group 2: Soybean Meal Market - The US-India trade agreement has improved export expectations for US soybean oil, and there is an increase in Chinese purchases of US soybeans, leading to a positive outlook for the 2025/26 US soybean demand [8][21] - Reports indicate that excessive rainfall in northern Mato Grosso, Brazil, has led to a decline in soybean quality, forcing farmers to sell at discounted prices, which may benefit crushing profits [8][21] - The upward trend in US soybeans is expected to support the valuation of domestic soybean meal, while potential weather risks in Argentina may cause fluctuations in the foreign market during the Spring Festival [8][21] Group 3: Egg Market - As the Spring Festival approaches, spot prices across channels have paused, and the March contract's discount reflects market anticipation of high inventory and weak seasonal demand [10][23] - The current price of the March contract largely reflects support near the cost line, with limited further downside unless inventory pressure exceeds expectations or demand recovery is particularly slow [10][23] Group 4: Pork Market - The average price of live pigs in major production areas is approximately 11.49 CNY/kg, with increased outflow activity observed. Prices are under pressure after a seasonal rebound before the Spring Festival [12][25] - The planned outflow for February is 22.92 million heads, a decrease of 17.73% compared to January, with a daily average increase of 21.44% due to fewer sales days in February [12][25] - Despite potential fluctuations as the Spring Festival approaches, the futures market has adequately priced in expectations for near-term contracts [12][25]