中信证券:需求复苏&竞争趋缓 多因素推动餐饮链预期改善
智通财经网·2026-02-12 01:29

Core Viewpoint - The restaurant supply chain sector is showing significant signs of recovery, with expectations for substantial sales improvement in 2026 due to a combination of marginal recovery, the timing of the Spring Festival, and low base effects [1] Group 1: Industry Recovery Signals - The restaurant industry's recovery is indicated by a rise in revenue growth, with Q4 2025 restaurant income growth accelerating to 3.0%, up from 1.6 percentage points in Q3 2025, suggesting improved consumer demand [2] - The introduction of new products and channels is expected to drive growth, with companies innovating and expanding into overseas markets [2] - The competitive landscape is stabilizing, with price competition diminishing and some companies beginning to cut costs to improve profitability, supported by a recovering Consumer Price Index (CPI) [2] Group 2: Sector-Specific Insights - The condiment sector is expected to benefit from improved restaurant channel dynamics, with price signals showing positive trends as retail prices for soy sauce have started to recover [3] - The frozen food sector is anticipated to reach a turning point in 2026, characterized by reduced competition and demand recovery, with a clear expectation that the price war will lose its effectiveness [4] - The light meal chain sector has stabilized after a period of store closures, with expectations for steady store numbers in 2026 and early signs of success in exploring new growth avenues [5]