本世纪末半数牧区或不宜放牧

Core Insights - A new study by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research warns that grassland-based grazing systems are facing unprecedented survival crises due to global warming, with 36% to 50% of currently suitable grazing land projected to become unsuitable by 2100, affecting over 100 million herders and up to 1.6 billion livestock [1][2] Group 1: Climate Impact on Grazing Systems - The study defines the "safe climate space" for livestock, which includes annual temperatures between -3°C and 29°C, annual precipitation between 50 to 2627 millimeters, relative humidity between 39% to 67%, and wind speeds not exceeding 6 meters per second [1] - Climate change is rapidly compressing this safe climate space, leading to a significant shrinkage of suitable grazing areas, particularly in countries already facing food shortages, economic fragility, political instability, and gender inequality [1] Group 2: Regional Impacts in Africa - Africa is projected to be a major disaster zone, with a potential 16% reduction in grazing land even under low emission scenarios, and losses could reach up to 65% if fossil fuel expansion continues unchecked [2] - Key grazing areas such as the Ethiopian Highlands, East African Rift Valley, Kalahari Basin, and Congo Basin are expected to lose suitable climate conditions, with no alternative habitats available for migration due to geographical constraints [2]