中金：维持信义光能(00968)中性评级 目标价3.6港元

Company Overview - CICC maintains a neutral rating for Xinyi Solar (00968) with a target price of HKD 3.6, corresponding to P/E ratios of 14.5 and 12.3 for 2026 and 2027, indicating a potential upside of 1.4% from the current stock price [1] - The company has introduced a revenue forecast for 2027 at CNY 21.293 billion and a profit forecast of CNY 2.355 billion [1] Current Situation - The reduction in export tax rebates has led to a temporary increase in domestic demand for solar components, resulting in a slight rise in photovoltaic glass prices, with sales profits showing some recovery [1] - Demand for components was weak in the first half of the year, with photovoltaic glass primarily focused on inventory clearance, expected to last until mid-February [1] - The inventory days in the glass industry have decreased from 40.17 days to 34.18 days, a reduction of approximately 6 days [1] - The company aims to control inventory days to alleviate pressure from accumulation during the Spring Festival [1] Overseas Expansion - The company has launched a 1200-ton production line in Indonesia on January 15, with another line expected to commence soon, aiming for full production and sales within the year [1] - The overseas production capacity now accounts for 24.7% of the company's total production capacity [1] - It is estimated that the company will need to export 10-15% of its products domestically to overseas markets, with total overseas shipments expected to exceed 35%, as overseas profit margins for photovoltaic glass are anticipated to be higher than domestic ones [1] Profit Forecast and Valuation - The revenue forecast for 2025 has been raised by 13.4% to CNY 18.914 billion due to higher-than-expected photovoltaic glass prices in October-November [2] - The profit forecast for Q4 has been increased by 2% to CNY 1.528 billion due to better-than-expected glass prices [2] - For 2026, the revenue forecast has been adjusted upward by 10.3% to CNY 20.324 billion, considering the increase in export proportion and higher overseas prices [2] - However, the profit forecast has been slightly reduced by 1.2% to CNY 2.033 billion due to risks associated with silicon material impairment and declining profit margins from weak domestic component demand [2]