Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles highlights the recent fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, which has shown a recovery trend after a period of decline, influenced by the divergence in monetary policies of the two countries and commodity price volatility [1][2]. - The USD/CAD exchange rate has experienced a "first suppress then rise" pattern since the beginning of the year, with significant movements noted in January and February, indicating a cautious market sentiment amid ongoing fluctuations [1][2]. - The Bank of Canada has maintained its benchmark interest rate at 2.25%, indicating potential for future rate cuts, while the Federal Reserve has not yet clarified its rate cut timing, creating a disparity that supports the USD and pressures the CAD [2][3]. Group 2 - The global trade environment remains uncertain, contributing to fluctuations in the USD/CAD exchange rate, with market risk aversion occasionally driving funds towards the USD, indirectly supporting its rise against the CAD [2]. - As a commodity currency, the CAD's performance is closely tied to global commodity prices, with potential price recoveries supporting the CAD and limiting the USD/CAD exchange rate's upward movement [3]. - There is a significant divergence in institutional views regarding the medium to long-term outlook for the USD/CAD exchange rate, with some analysts suggesting that a rate cut by the Bank of Canada could lead to further increases in the exchange rate, while others believe that rising expectations for Fed rate cuts may weaken USD support [3].
央行政策分化 加元震荡回升
Jin Tou Wang·2026-02-12 02:27