非农就业增长大超预期 降息前景受挫美债收益率走高

Group 1 - The core point of the articles indicates that the U.S. labor market showed resilience in January, with non-farm payrolls significantly exceeding expectations, which may lead the Federal Reserve to delay interest rate cuts [1][2] - The U.S. added 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, surpassing the consensus estimate of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000, while the unemployment rate fell to 4.3%, a five-month low [1] - Following the employment data release, U.S. Treasury yields rose, with the 2-year yield reaching above 3.55%, an increase of 10 basis points, while the 10-year yield rose by 3 basis points to 4.17% [1] Group 2 - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March increased by 14 percentage points to 94.1% following the employment report [2] - Despite the positive employment data, experts caution that the labor market remains fragile, with signs of ongoing weakness [2] - The U.S. Congressional Budget Office raised its forecast for the federal budget deficit for the next ten years, projecting a deficit of $1.85 trillion for fiscal year 2026, an increase of $100 billion from previous estimates [3][4] Group 3 - The projected federal budget deficit for fiscal year 2036 is expected to rise to $3.11 trillion, accounting for 6.7% of GDP, significantly higher than the 5.8% in fiscal year 2025 [4] - Publicly held U.S. debt as a percentage of GDP is anticipated to increase from 101% in fiscal year 2026 to 120% in fiscal year 2036, surpassing the previous high of 106% in 1946 [4] - Interest payments on U.S. government debt are expected to rise from $1.04 trillion in fiscal year 2026 to $2.14 trillion in fiscal year 2036, with the proportion of interest payments to fiscal revenue projected to increase from 18.6% to 25.8% [4]