非农数据扰动美元偏弱格

Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January unexpectedly showed strong growth, with an addition of 130,000 jobs, significantly higher than the expected 55,000, and the unemployment rate fell to 4.3% [1][2] - Employment growth was driven primarily by the healthcare (+82,000) and social assistance (+42,000) sectors, while the federal government (-34,000) and financial services (-22,000) saw job losses [1][2] - The report included a benchmark revision showing a downward adjustment of 898,000 jobs for the previous year, indicating a trend of weak employment in 2025 [1] Group 2 - Following the non-farm report, market expectations for interest rate cuts were slightly adjusted, with the next anticipated cut pushed from June to July, and the probability of a 25 basis point cut in March at 23.2% [2] - Federal Reserve officials expressed mixed views, with some suggesting the need for further rate cuts to address labor market weaknesses, while others noted the current stability of the job market [2] - Analysts believe that despite the strong non-farm data, the overall employment situation remains weak, and inflation is still above the 2% target, which may delay the first rate cut until June [2] Group 3 - The U.S. dollar index experienced a brief rise to 97.272 following the non-farm report but subsequently retreated, closing at 96.834, indicating a cautious market sentiment [2] - Major non-U.S. currencies showed mixed movements, with the euro fluctuating around 1.1878 and the pound maintaining support at 1.3632, while the dollar-yen pair traded in a range around 152.98 [3] - Technical analysis suggests a bearish outlook for the dollar index, with key support levels identified between 96.50 and 96.20, and a potential drop below these levels could lead to further declines [3]