长江有色: 铝锭社库累积+现货交投冷淡 12日铝价或涨跌有限

Group 1 - The core viewpoint of the articles indicates that the aluminum market is experiencing fluctuations due to geopolitical tensions and seasonal factors, with limited trading activity expected ahead of the Chinese New Year [1][2]. Group 2 - In the aluminum futures market, geopolitical tensions between the US and Iran have led to an increase in oil prices, with London aluminum closing at $3117 per ton, up $12 or 0.39%, and trading volume increasing by 2705 contracts to 19006 [1]. - The latest inventory report from the London Metal Exchange (LME) shows a decrease of 1225 tons in aluminum stocks, bringing the total to 485750 tons, a decline of 0.25% [1]. - The current spot aluminum prices in China are reported at 23260 yuan per ton in Changjiang, down 30 yuan, while in Guangdong, the price is 23400 yuan per ton, up 10 yuan [1]. Group 3 - The macroeconomic context reveals that the US added 130,000 jobs in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 70,000, with the unemployment rate dropping from 4.4% to 4.3%, indicating a stable labor market [2]. - The aluminum supply side has seen little change in electrolytic aluminum production capacity, with a slight increase in output, while demand is weakening as downstream businesses begin to close for the holiday [2]. - The aluminum market is expected to face pressure from inventory accumulation and insufficient spot replenishment, with strong support anticipated around 23000 yuan per ton [2].