SCC(SH:600740) Jing Ji Guan Cha Wang·2026-02-12 04:18Core Viewpoint - The recent decline in Shanxi Coking's stock price is influenced by multiple factors including performance downturn, weak industry fundamentals, and market sentiment [1] Company Performance - The company forecasts a full-year net profit attributable to shareholders between 74 million to 89 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 66.31% to 71.82% [2] - The non-recurring net profit is expected to drop by 79.36% to 85.43% year-on-year, with weak main business profitability and decreased investment income from joint ventures impacting overall profits [2] - Cumulative losses of approximately 50.05 million yuan were reported for the first three quarters of 2025, indicating insufficient profitability stability despite a single-quarter turnaround in Q3 [2] Industry Conditions - The coking coal industry faces dual pressures from capacity release and weak demand, with the steel industry experiencing reduced crude steel output affecting terminal demand [3] - Coking coal prices showed a trend of "weak first, strong later, then decline" throughout the year, with the average price in Q3 2025 at 1,322.17 yuan per ton, down 23.64% year-on-year [3] - The procurement cost of coking coal increased by 4.68% quarter-on-quarter, leading to a sustained negative gross margin in the coking business [3] Financial Condition - The company's net cash flow from operating activities has been negative for three consecutive years, worsening to -1.403 billion yuan in the first three quarters of 2025, highlighting cash flow pressure [4] - As of Q1 2025, the company's current ratio was only 0.26, indicating weak short-term debt repayment capability [4] Stock Performance - Despite a temporary stock price surge due to coal industry merger and reorganization policies in early February 2026, the stock quickly corrected as investors took profits [5] - Market confidence in long-term industry improvement remains low, and the company has not implemented any share buybacks or increases since 2011, contrasting with recent state-owned enterprise policies encouraging market value management [5] Company Valuation - As of February 12, 2026, the company's price-to-book ratio was 0.78, below the industry average, while the price-to-earnings ratio was -299.35, reflecting distorted valuation due to losses [6] - The stock price has shown a volatility range of 11.73%, indicating intense capital speculation but lacking sustained upward momentum [6] - The decline in Shanxi Coking's stock price is attributed to weak fundamentals, industry cycle downturn, and low market sentiment, necessitating attention to future coking coal price trends, cost control effectiveness, and responsiveness to state-owned enterprise policies [6]