人民币兑美元，升破6.9

Core Viewpoint - The offshore and onshore RMB exchange rates have reached their highest levels since April 2023, with the offshore RMB breaking the 6.90 mark against the USD for the first time since then [1]. Exchange Rate Summary - As of February 12, the offshore RMB was reported at 6.89915 against the USD, with a daily high of 6.90935 and a year-to-date decline of 1.09% [2]. - The onshore RMB reached a peak of 6.8998 against the USD, also marking a new high since April 2023, and was reported at 6.9019 at the time of writing [3]. - The People's Bank of China set the central parity rate for the RMB at 6.9457 against the USD, a decrease of 19 basis points [4]. Underlying Factors for RMB Appreciation - Analysts attribute the recent RMB appreciation to several factors, including increased foreign exchange settlement demand from Chinese enterprises, global distrust in the USD, and a shift towards physical assets that support currencies [4]. - The central bank's recent monetary policy report emphasizes the role of the exchange rate as an automatic stabilizer for the macroeconomy and international balance of payments, aiming for a stable RMB at a reasonable level [4]. - The focus on the automatic stabilizer function indicates a commitment to maintaining the RMB's intrinsic and elastic pricing characteristics to achieve internal and external economic balance [4]. Future Outlook - The chief economist at Guosheng Securities predicts that the RMB will experience overall stability with a slight upward trend in 2026, driven by steady domestic economic growth and manageable external risks, although sustained unilateral appreciation is unlikely [5].