国际观察丨高市选后即欲修宪，值得警惕

Core Viewpoint - Following the recent House of Representatives election, Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President, Kishi Sanae, has signaled a strong intention to amend the constitution, aiming to create conditions for an early national referendum on constitutional revision [1][2]. Group 1: Constitutional Amendment Intent - Kishi expressed her desire for all political parties and the public to engage in deeper discussions regarding constitutional amendments, emphasizing her commitment to advancing campaign promises, including constitutional revision [2]. - The LDP has reached the legal threshold in the House of Representatives with over two-thirds of the seats, enabling them to initiate constitutional amendment motions [1][3]. - The LDP's coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, has also called for accelerated discussions on the constitutional positioning of the Self-Defense Forces [2]. Group 2: Challenges to Amendment - Despite the electoral gains, the LDP and its coalition face challenges in the House of Councillors, where they do not hold a majority, making it difficult to pass amendment proposals [3]. - Even if motions are initiated in both houses, the success of a national referendum remains uncertain, as public opinion on constitutional revision is not fully unified [3]. - Concerns have been raised by various media outlets regarding the potential for the ruling party to push through amendments without broad consensus, highlighting the lack of urgency for constitutional changes [3]. Group 3: Risks and International Concerns - Experts warn that the right-wing forces in Japan are attempting to undermine the post-war international order and the principles established by the constitution, particularly Article 9, which renounces war [5][6]. - The current government’s policies, including increased defense spending and expanded Self-Defense Forces activities, are seen as steps towards militarization and constitutional revision [6]. - There is significant concern from both international observers and Japanese scholars regarding the potential shift in Japan's national identity and security posture, which could lead to increased risks of conflict [6].