Revised CPI may give RBI reason to keep interest rates on hold

Core Insights - India is set to release new inflation figures based on a revised consumer price index (CPI), which may indicate heightened price pressures in the economy, potentially leading the central bank to maintain current interest rates [1][4] CPI Overhaul - The new CPI, scheduled for release on Thursday, will reflect updated spending patterns and will include data for 2025, facilitating easier comparisons [2] - The weighting of volatile items like food has been reduced to approximately 36.8% from nearly 50%, while new categories such as rural housing rentals and online shopping have been introduced [3] - The base year for the CPI has been updated from 2012 to 2024, which may result in an inflation reading of about 2.77% for January, compared to 1.33% in December based on the previous series [3] Central Bank Implications - Although inflation remains below the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) target of 4%, the new figures could lead to a pause in rate cuts and an increase in bond yields [4] - The RBI's inflation forecasting model has faced scrutiny due to past overestimations, prompting discussions on whether to target an inflation measure that excludes food to reduce volatility [5] Market Reactions - The new CPI series is expected to enhance the effectiveness of the RBI's monetary policy and improve the speed of transmission [6] - Financial market participants are closely monitoring the CPI changes, as a higher inflation trajectory could keep borrowing costs elevated, affecting bond yields and equity valuations [6] Economic Context - The revised CPI aims to better reflect India's economic reality, considering the shift in consumer spending towards services and housing as incomes rise [7] - Core inflation, which excludes food and fuel, will see its weight increase to nearly 58% from 47.3%, making it more responsive to monetary policy [8] Future Data Releases - The government plans to publish GDP data on February 27 based on the new consumer spending patterns, which may show a significant upward revision in the economy's size, potentially positioning India to surpass Japan as the world's fourth-largest economy [9] Index Composition Changes - The CPI overhaul will replace outdated items with modern expenditures, including airfares and e-commerce sales, while also incorporating electricity prices and rural housing costs [10] - Free food items from government welfare programs will be excluded from the new CPI, which will also provide more detailed data potentially down to the item level [11] Market Expectations - The bond market is currently facing record debt supply, with benchmark 10-year bond yields reaching their highest level in over a year following the central bank's decision to hold rates [11] - Market expectations indicate a slight upward bias in the new CPI of around 30-50 basis points, with the RBI anticipated to maintain a long hold stance focused on proactive liquidity management [12]