美国1月非农新增13万超预期，失业率4.3%创2025年8月新低

Group 1 - The core point of the article is the significant increase in non-farm employment in January, with 130,000 new jobs added, which exceeded market expectations and led to a drop in the unemployment rate to 4.3%, the lowest since August 2025 [1] - Following the employment data release, market expectations for the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts were adjusted, with traders pushing back the anticipated first rate cut from June to July [1] - The probability of the Federal Reserve maintaining interest rates in March rose to 94%, while the probability of a 25 basis point rate cut decreased to around 6% [1] Group 2 - Different institutions have varying assessments regarding the Federal Reserve's future rate cut path, with Huatai Securities maintaining a judgment that the Fed will pause rate cuts before June, expecting 1-2 cuts thereafter [2] - TD Securities has also pushed back its first rate cut expectation from March to June, still forecasting a total of 75 basis points in cuts over the year, to be implemented in three phases [2]