华商基金杜钧天：力争驾驭市场预期差 在复杂债市中构建平衡组合

Core Viewpoint - The bond market is experiencing discussions amid a recovering economy, with structural characteristics becoming increasingly evident [1][6]. Economic Environment - Since the fourth quarter, the domestic macroeconomic performance has shown a weak yet stable trend, with GDP growth gradually declining throughout the year [3][8]. - Inflation recovery is exhibiting structural characteristics, with household sectors remaining a weak point in the economy [3][8]. Market Sentiment - Despite the economic shortfalls, the bond market's expectations for economic growth and inflation in the coming year have improved, supported by positive policy changes that have boosted market confidence [3][9]. Government Policies - The government's "anti-involution policy" aims to reduce ineffective competition and stabilize supply-side prices, particularly in certain industrial products, providing a clearer policy bottom for prices [9]. - Signals from important meetings in December indicate that broad fiscal spending is expected to maintain strength, with a policy tilt towards household sectors and service consumption, positively supporting market prospects [4][9]. External Factors - A temporary easing of geopolitical disturbances and the spillover effects of overseas policy easing are expected to continue supporting exports [4][9]. - Potential external inflation inputs are also providing support for the recovery of domestic price indicators, further enhancing market recovery expectations [4][9]. Market Dynamics - In the context of mixed fundamentals and liquidity, the influence of institutional behavior in the bond market has increased [4][9]. - Concerns about supply-demand imbalances in ultra-long bonds may negatively impact the bond market until clear support emerges, but there is no need for excessive worry about future supply issues given the reliance on government credit expansion and moderately loose monetary policy [4][9]. Investment Strategy - The fund's portfolio has been adjusted to a bullet structure at year-end, aiming to capitalize on curve convexity and riding opportunities to build a more robust portfolio structure for 2026 [4][9].