TrendForce：2026 全球手机产量恐衰退10%至11.35 亿台

Core Insights - The smartphone industry is facing significant challenges due to a sharp increase in memory prices, which is expected to lead to a notable decline in global smartphone production by 2026 [1] Group 1: Production Forecast - Global smartphone production is projected to decrease by 10% in 2026, reaching approximately 1.135 billion units [1] - If memory prices continue to rise, the production decline could extend to 15% or more, with annual capacity potentially dropping to a minimum of 1.061 billion units [1] Group 2: Cost Impact - The surge in memory prices has directly increased the manufacturing costs of smartphones [1] - For instance, the estimated contract price for a mainstream configuration of 8GB RAM and 256GB storage has risen by nearly 200% compared to the same period in 2025 [1] - The share of memory costs in the overall smartphone production costs has escalated from the previous range of 10%-15% to now 30%-40% [1] Group 3: Manufacturer Strategies - The significant rise in costs has compelled smartphone manufacturers to adjust their production and operational strategies [1] - Manufacturers are responding by raising the prices of end products, restructuring product mix, or optimizing hardware configurations to cope with cost pressures [1]