国际观察｜高市选后即欲修宪，值得警惕

Core Viewpoint - Following the House of Representatives election, Japanese Prime Minister and Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) President Sanna Takashi quickly signaled intentions to amend the constitution, stating that she would create conditions for an early national referendum on constitutional revision [1][3]. Group 1: Constitutional Amendment Intentions - Takashi expressed her expectation for deepened discussions on constitutional amendments among political parties and the public, emphasizing her commitment to advancing campaign promises, including constitutional revision [3]. - The LDP aims to amend Article 9 of the constitution to formally recognize the Self-Defense Forces (SDF) as a legitimate military organization, which has been a long-standing goal of right-wing factions in Japan [3][6]. - The LDP's coalition partner, the Japan Innovation Party, supports accelerating discussions on the constitutional status of the SDF, indicating a unified front among right-leaning parties [3]. Group 2: Legislative and Public Challenges - Despite the LDP's majority in the House of Representatives, the coalition does not hold a majority in the House of Councillors, making it challenging to pass constitutional amendments [6]. - Constitutional amendments require a two-thirds majority in both houses and a majority in a national referendum, which remains a significant hurdle for the ruling coalition [6]. - Public opinion on constitutional revision is not fully unified, and the specific wording of any proposed amendments could influence public sentiment significantly [6][7]. Group 3: Risks and Concerns - Experts warn that the push for constitutional revision by Takashi and right-wing factions poses risks to Japan's post-war international order and could lead to increased militarization [9][10]. - The government’s actions, including increased defense spending and expanded SDF activities, are seen as steps toward undermining the principles established by Article 9, which renounces war and military forces [9][10]. - There is a growing concern among scholars and legal experts that Japan's current trajectory may lead to a departure from its pacifist constitution, potentially increasing the risk of conflict [10].