白酒四川区域反馈

Core Viewpoint - The overall sales of liquor during the Spring Festival period are expected to decline by 8%, which is better than previous pessimistic forecasts, with varying performance across different consumption categories [1]. Group 1: Consumption Environment - The Spring Festival sales have fully commenced, with an overall expected decline of 8% in liquor sales during this period [1]. - Gift consumption (mass premium) is expected to see slight growth, while business consumption is projected to decline by 20% [1]. - Residential consumption is expected to remain flat with slight growth, and government consumption is anticipated to drop by 90% [1]. Group 2: Company Performance - Kweichow Moutai: The return of funds for the March flying Moutai is not fully completed, with zero inventory and low channel stocking willingness, focusing more on turnover rates. The post-holiday price is expected to stabilize at 1550 yuan [1]. - Wuliangye: Current shipments are up by 30% year-on-year, with sales performance showing a 10% increase compared to the previous year [1]. - Luzhou Laojiao: The current return progress for Guojiao 1573 is at 35%, with approximately three months of inventory. However, both shipment and sales are down by over 30% and 25% respectively, despite stable pricing [1]. - Honghua Lang: Currently, sales are up by 9% year-on-year [2]. - Jian Nan Chun: Sales are flat year-on-year [2]. - Shede and Shui Jing Fang: Both brands have seen slight declines despite low base comparisons [2].