破除认知偏差:读懂能源转型中的供需密码
Zhong Guo Dian Li Bao·2026-02-12 06:27

Core Viewpoint - The emergence of negative electricity prices is a normal market reflection of supply and demand dynamics in the context of deepening electricity market mechanisms and high integration of renewable energy, rather than a sign of market disorder or failure in energy transition [1] Group 1: Nature of Negative Electricity Prices - The core function of the electricity spot market is to guide supply and demand through price signals for optimal resource allocation, with negative prices indicating an extreme case of oversupply [2] - Renewable energy companies may choose to report negative prices to avoid losses from curtailment and to benefit from subsidies and green certificate revenues, while traditional thermal power plants find it more economical to maintain low-load operations during short-term negative pricing [2] Group 2: Distinction Between Negative Price and Negative Fee - Negative electricity prices in the spot market do not equate to negative electricity fees for consumers, as the final settlement price includes various components beyond the spot market price [3] - For some renewable energy projects not covered by guaranteed purchase agreements, negative pricing periods may lead to actual negative revenue, highlighting significant price risk differences among market participants [3] Group 3: Key Causes of Negative Electricity Prices - The occurrence of negative prices is a systemic result of high renewable energy integration, physical constraints of electricity, and operational characteristics of traditional power sources [4] Group 4: Intermittency and Randomness of Renewable Energy Output - The intermittent and volatile nature of renewable energy sources like wind and solar leads to periods of oversupply, which is the primary reason for the emergence of negative prices [5] Group 5: Real-Time Balance of Electricity Supply and Demand - Electricity's unique characteristics require real-time matching of generation and consumption, and negative price signals can serve as a warning of potential system instability [6] Group 6: Operational Constraints of Traditional Power Plants - Traditional thermal power plants face significant operational constraints, including equipment lifespan loss from frequent starts and stops, making it economically challenging to adjust output in response to negative pricing [7] Group 7: Global Context of Negative Electricity Prices - Negative prices are not unique to China but are a common phenomenon in regions with high renewable energy integration and advanced electricity market mechanisms, as seen in countries like Germany and Spain [8] Group 8: Understanding and Leveraging Negative Prices - Recognizing negative prices as a natural outcome of market evolution and renewable energy integration can guide improvements in market mechanisms and system flexibility, turning negative prices into a catalyst for low-carbon and efficient energy transition [9]