澳洲联储主席警告：通胀高企不可接受 必要时将再次加息

Core Viewpoint - The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is prepared to raise interest rates again if inflation remains stubbornly high, with a cautious approach to further tightening of monetary policy emphasized by Governor Michele Bullock [1][4]. Group 1: Inflation and Monetary Policy - The RBA has become the first major central bank to raise interest rates this year, with expectations of at least one more increase in the coming months as inflation is projected to exceed the target range of 2%-3% [1][4]. - Bullock stated that an inflation rate above 3% is unacceptable, aligning with Deputy Governor Andrew Hagger's warning about the current high inflation levels being a significant challenge for the monetary policy committee [1][4]. - The next RBA meeting is scheduled for mid-March, where decision-makers will review employment and inflation data, along with GDP data for Q4 2025, which is expected to show a resilient Australian economy [4]. Group 2: Economic Challenges - The RBA's recent rate hike marks a sharp policy shift from six months ago when the bank was cutting rates, highlighting structural economic challenges faced by Australia, particularly low productivity growth [4]. - Bullock indicated that without improvements in productivity, maintaining a growth rate above 2% without triggering inflation will be difficult [4]. Group 3: Labor Market and Employment - Despite ongoing inflation control challenges, the unemployment rate remains historically low at 4.1% as of December, with the estimated non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU) at 4.6% [5]. - Assistant Governor Sarah Hunter emphasized the importance of evaluating economic capacity pressures and labor market conditions to determine whether the recent inflation rise is temporary or a trend [5]. Group 4: Government Spending and Political Sensitivity - Bullock expressed frustration during the hearing regarding media criticism of the RBA's reluctance to attribute government spending to inflationary pressures, highlighting the political sensitivity surrounding fiscal policy [5][6]. - While acknowledging the impact of government spending on the economy, Bullock avoided direct criticism of fiscal policy, stating that public consumption increases total demand but is viewed as a "given condition" by the RBA [5].