I Created My Own Prediction Market. What It’s Telling Me About the S&P 500 Now, and What Comes Next.

Let’s face it, throughout human history, people have had opinions. But it took until this decade for them to be treated like a formal financial exchange. Now it’s here, and as it appears, it is well on the way to replacing traditional polling, among other inefficient methods of gauging risk. They rely on the proverbial “wisdom of crowds,” for “bettor” or worse.Now, this new industry is solving the problem that traditional polling and pundits couldn’t. Prediction markets give us “skin in the game.”It dawned ...