暴跌之后 白银何去何从？

Core Viewpoint - The recent dramatic decline in COMEX silver futures, which saw a historic single-day drop of 35%, has abruptly ended a bullish market trend, with low probabilities of new highs in the short to medium term. However, many institutions remain optimistic about the long-term prospects of silver, advising caution in the short term [1][5]. Market Dynamics - The silver market experienced a significant surge, with prices rising by 300% in 2025, followed by a sharp decline shortly after the start of 2026. This volatility has led to substantial profits for some investors while others faced significant losses [2]. - The surge was driven by a combination of increased industrial demand and a correction in the gold-silver ratio, with large institutional players fueling the market and attracting retail investors [2][5]. - As prices rose, short positions were forced to cover, leading to a reversal in market dynamics where long positions began to liquidate, resulting in a sharp price drop exacerbated by regulatory measures that increased margin requirements [2][3]. Historical Context - Historical patterns indicate that major peaks in silver prices are often accompanied by increased margin requirements from exchanges. The recent adjustments by the CME to a percentage-based margin system have accelerated the deleveraging process in the silver market [3]. - The volatility in silver prices has been unprecedented, with significant fluctuations observed in a short time frame, making short-term predictions nearly impossible [3][6]. Long-term Outlook - Analysts maintain a bullish long-term outlook for silver, citing persistent supply-demand imbalances and geopolitical risks that support higher prices. Despite short-term volatility, the fundamental drivers for silver's long-term growth remain intact [5][7]. - UBS forecasts a significant shortfall in the silver market by 2026, with investment demand expected to exceed 400 million ounces, although high prices may dampen industrial demand [5][6]. - The recent price drop is attributed more to risk aversion than a collapse in fundamentals, suggesting that without sustained investment demand, silver prices may struggle to stay above $85 per ounce [6]. Investment Strategy - Financial institutions suggest that while the long-term trend for precious metals remains upward, the current market conditions warrant a cautious approach in the short term. Investors are advised to monitor volatility levels for potential re-entry points [7].