债市日报：2月12日

Core Viewpoint - The bond market shows slight differentiation in performance, with government bond futures experiencing a decline while interbank bond yields continue to decrease, indicating a "warm yet restrained" market sentiment ahead of the Spring Festival [1][4]. Market Performance - Government bond futures closed with half of the contracts down; the 30-year main contract fell by 0.03% to 112.7, while the 10-year main contract rose by 0.02% to 108.585 [2]. - Interbank bond yields generally decreased, with the 10-year government bond yield down by 1 basis point to 1.776% and the 30-year government bond yield down by 0.15 basis points to 2.2255% [2]. Overseas Bond Market - In North America, U.S. Treasury yields rose across the board, with the 2-year yield increasing by 6.41 basis points to 3.512% [3]. - In Asia, Japanese bond yields fell, with the 5-year and 10-year yields down by 0.4 basis points and 1.2 basis points, respectively [3]. - In the Eurozone, yields on 10-year bonds from France, Germany, Italy, and Spain all decreased, indicating a general trend of declining yields [3]. Liquidity Conditions - The central bank conducted a net injection of 448 billion yuan through reverse repos, with a total of 1665 billion yuan in 7-day reverse repos and 4000 billion yuan in 14-day reverse repos [4]. - The Shibor rates for short-term instruments mostly declined, with the overnight rate rising slightly by 0.2 basis points to 1.368% [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Citic Securities noted that while CPI remains low, PPI is steadily rising, which may have a marginal impact on bond market pricing; the sentiment-driven bond market may continue to show slight strength until the Spring Festival [5]. - Shenwan Hongyuan indicated that the bond market may enter a phase of compressed spreads, with ongoing market dynamics influenced by the balance of asset allocation and the potential for capital to flow from bonds to equities [6].