Ford Motor(US:F) 智通财经网·2026-02-12 08:32Core Viewpoint - UBS expresses increased confidence in Ford Motor Company's (F.US) Q4 2025 performance and 2026 outlook, highlighting a potential EBIT exceeding expectations by 69% when excluding a $900 million unexpected headwind from tariff recovery delays [1] Group 1: 2026 Performance Outlook - UBS maintains a "Neutral" rating on Ford with a target price of $15, indicating that the adjusted EBIT for 2026 is approximately 20% higher than the company's guidance, with a profit margin target of 8% by 2029 supporting an EPS of $2.90 [1] - The 2026 EBIT guidance is projected at $9 billion, an increase of $2.2 billion year-over-year, driven by several factors including a $1 billion reduction in Novelis-related costs and improvements in Model E business [1][2] - The company faces significant risks, including execution challenges, near-zero free cash flow in 2026, and aggressive assumptions regarding tariff refunds that may raise investor concerns about growth potential [1][2] Group 2: 2027 and Beyond - UBS anticipates that normalized profit improvements could lead to stronger performance in 2027, with an optimistic EBIT projection potentially exceeding $12 billion, supported by increased SuperDuty production and narrowing losses in Model E [2] - The company reaffirms its target of an 8% adjusted EBIT margin by 2029, which could correspond to an EPS of approximately $2.90 under low single-digit revenue growth assumptions [2] - Historical context shows that Ford previously set a 10% profit margin target for 2026, while the current guidance is around 5%, indicating a significant shift in expectations [2] Group 3: Earnings Forecast Adjustments - UBS raises its EPS forecasts for 2026 and 2027 from $1.49 and $1.78 to $1.55 and $1.86, respectively, reflecting a more normalized profit level [3] - The forward P/E ratio for 2027 is adjusted from 8.5x to 8x, which remains slightly above the average of 7.3x since 2022, suggesting a reasonable valuation given the potential for future earnings adjustments [3]