Group 1 - The U.S. non-farm payroll data for January shows an increase of 130,000 jobs, significantly better than market expectations, and the unemployment rate has decreased to 4.3% [1] - The stronger-than-expected employment data has led to a shift in market expectations regarding the Federal Reserve's interest rate cuts, with the anticipated timing pushed from June to July [1] - The CME FedWatch Tool indicates a 94.6% probability that the Federal Reserve will maintain interest rates in March [1] Group 2 - Despite the positive employment report, concerns remain about the labor market's fragility, with historical data being significantly revised downwards [2] - The reliability of the January non-farm data is questioned due to the partial government shutdown affecting data collection and reporting [2] - President Trump continues to advocate for interest rate cuts, maintaining a dovish stance despite the strong employment figures [2] Group 3 - The current Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell's term is set to end in May, with Kevin Warsh, nominated by Trump, being a potential successor who may favor lower interest rates [3]
美国非农数据公布，市场对美联储的降息预期变了→
Jin Rong Shi Bao·2026-02-12 08:31