毕马威展望中国经济：政策蓄力构建再平衡

Economic Overview - The report indicates that China's economy successfully concluded 2025, but structural disparities in supply and demand, domestic and external demand, and the performance of new versus old drivers are evident [1] - For 2026, domestic economic growth is expected to remain robust, with an anticipated acceleration in the convergence of supply and demand disparities [1] Output Analysis - In 2025, the manufacturing value added grew by 6.1% year-on-year, driven by strong export demand and domestic equipment renewal policies [1] - The rapid development of artificial intelligence and a recovering capital market have supported fast growth in the information technology and financial services sectors, leading to the tertiary industry growth surpassing that of the secondary industry [1] - The initiation of "two heavy" projects and the first round of "two new" subsidies at the beginning of 2026 is expected to boost production in upstream raw materials and downstream consumer goods [1] Consumption Trends - The trend of self-consumption continues to rise, with a shift in consumer structure towards quality and experience, resulting in moderate recovery in the growth of gold and silver jewelry, cosmetics, and clothing [1] - Service consumption remains resilient, and the "old-for-new" policy will continue to be implemented with a focus on green, smart, and senior consumer upgrades in 2026 [1] Export Performance - In 2025, China's foreign trade achieved stable volume and quality under complex external conditions, with a record trade surplus that supported the annual economic growth target [2] Fiscal and Monetary Policy - A significant amount of surplus funds is expected to be released at the beginning of 2026 to meet budgeted investment needs [2] - The central bank is anticipated to implement a combination of "interest rate cuts + incremental + expansion" through structural tools at the start of 2026, with conditions for stabilizing the RMB exchange rate and bank net interest margins allowing for future comprehensive reductions [2] Policy Outlook - The central economic work conference has set higher quality requirements for economic growth, with macro policies expected to maintain stable expansion in scale while emphasizing the stimulation of domestic demand and optimizing supply [2] - There will be a focus on supporting private investment stability by lowering financing thresholds and easing access for major projects [2] - On the supply side, policies will promote the large-scale development of emerging industries while accelerating the digital transformation of traditional industries [2]