The Iraqi Megaproject No One Thought Would Happen Is Racing To Completion

Core Viewpoint - Iraq's future crude oil production targets hinge on the successful implementation of the Common Seawater Supply Project (CSSP) by TotalEnergies, which aims to optimize oil reservoir pressure and enhance production longevity [2][3]. Group 1: Project Overview - The CSSP will initially supply approximately six million barrels per day (bpd) of treated seawater to oil production facilities in southern Iraq, with plans for further expansion [2]. - TotalEnergies' four-part project, valued at US$27 billion, is reported to be 80% to 95% complete, with significant progress in various components, including the rehabilitation of the Central Processing Facility and the Artawi-PS1 export pipeline [3]. - The project aims to address Iraq's water injection needs, which are estimated to be around 2% of the combined average flows of the Tigris and Euphrates rivers [1]. Group 2: Historical Context and Challenges - The CSSP faced delays for over a decade due to competition between ExxonMobil and the China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) for control, with ExxonMobil eventually withdrawing due to transparency concerns [3]. - Iraq has been ranked among the worst countries for corruption, which has hindered effective project execution and governance [3]. Group 3: Production Potential - The Integrated National Energy Strategy (INES) outlined potential oil production scenarios for Iraq, with the best-case scenario projecting a capacity increase to 13 million bpd by 2023, while current production stands at 4-4.2 million bpd [4]. - The gas component of TotalEnergies' project is crucial for reducing Iraq's dependence on Iranian gas imports, which has historically provided Iran with leverage over Iraq [5][6]. Group 4: Future Outlook - If TotalEnergies maintains its current trajectory, the US$27 billion project could be completed by the target year of 2028, despite potential political interference from Iraqi entities [7]. - The project includes plans to capture and refine associated natural gas, which could significantly reduce gas imports from Iran and support the revival of the Nebras petrochemicals project, potentially generating up to US$100 billion in profits for Iraq [6].