【财经分析】扩容提质与进退有序：2026年公募REITs市场呈现发展新格局

Core Viewpoint - The REITs market in China is entering a new phase of comprehensive development, focusing on both infrastructure and commercial real estate, with expectations for significant growth by 2026 [2][3]. Group 1: Market Development Characteristics - The domestic public REITs market is now in a "first issuance + expansion" dual-driven development phase, with the market size expected to double by the end of 2024, becoming a core tool for revitalizing capital market stock [2]. - As of January 30, 2026, there are 78 publicly listed REITs with a total market value of 228.7 billion yuan and a circulating market value of 124.7 billion yuan, with 37 additional products pending listing [2]. - The first batch of commercial real estate REITs includes diverse asset types such as shopping centers, hotels, and commercial complexes, with a projected fundraising scale exceeding 31.4 billion yuan in 2026 [3]. Group 2: Mechanisms and Trends - The normalization of the expansion mechanism has been established, with the interval for expansion applications reduced from one year to six months, enhancing market liquidity and asset operation efficiency [4]. - Long-term funds, including insurance and social security, are increasing their allocation to public REITs, leading to a steady rise in average daily trading volume and improved pricing efficiency [4]. Group 3: Project Termination and Market Dynamics - A significant number of projects have been terminated or withdrawn, marking the first large-scale exit cases in the REITs market, indicating a shift towards a more regulated and orderly market environment [5][6]. - The reasons for project withdrawals include stricter regulatory requirements, asset quality not meeting standards, and strategic adjustments by institutions in response to the launch of commercial real estate REITs [6][7][8]. Group 4: Future Outlook and Investment Strategy - The termination of projects is viewed as a necessary phase for the high-quality development of public REITs, with expectations for structural optimization and resilience enhancement in the market [9]. - By 2026, it is anticipated that the number of new public REITs will reach 20, with a total market size aiming for 300 billion yuan, and the potential for the market to reach 2 trillion yuan in the long term [9][10]. - Investment strategies should focus on high-dividend, quality operations, and assets with expansion potential, particularly in the rental housing and core commercial asset sectors [9][10].