三变科技业绩预降股价反涨，AI算力概念驱动市场高预期

Core Viewpoint - The stock price of Sanbian Technology (002112) has risen despite a projected decline in performance for 2025, driven by high market expectations for emerging businesses like AI computing power, creating a short-term divergence from the company's fundamentals [1]. Performance and Operating Conditions - The company forecasts a net profit attributable to shareholders for 2025 between 12 million and 18 million yuan, representing a year-on-year decline of 85.10% to 90.06%. The decline in net profit is primarily due to intensified competition in the transformer market, leading to a decrease in new energy order share, and rising copper prices squeezing gross margins. For the first three quarters of 2025, revenue decreased by 16.91%, net profit fell by 48.84%, and gross margin dropped to 17.45% [2]. Stock Price Movement Reasons - AI computing power concept catalyzed the stock price increase: The company became the main transformer supplier for Musk's xAI Memphis supercomputer center, with initial orders around 50 million yuan, leading to high market expectations for its entry into the global AI industry chain. From January to early February 2026, the stock price surged nearly 100%, closing at 24.92 yuan on February 12, with a year-to-date increase of 87.93% [3]. - Funding and sentiment drove the stock price: Since the beginning of 2026, the stock frequently appeared on the leaderboard, with turnover rates exceeding 40%, indicating intense speculation from retail and institutional investors. However, recent main fund outflows were noted, with a net outflow of 40.17 million yuan on February 12, reflecting significant divergence in market sentiment [3]. Company Fundamentals - Valuation and performance divergence: As of the closing price on February 12, the price-to-earnings ratio (TTM) reached 88.91 times, while net profit significantly declined, indicating a high valuation [4]. - Financial pressures unresolved: By the end of the third quarter of 2025, accounts receivable and inventory stood at 753 million yuan and 776 million yuan, respectively, with low turnover efficiency (accounts receivable turnover days at 168 days). The net cash flow from operating activities was a negative 100 million yuan, and the quick ratio was 0.89, below the safety line [4]. - Traditional business under pressure: Oil-immersed transformers accounted for 58.38% of the business, with capacity utilization dropping to 65% due to a slowdown in grid investment [4]. Institutional Perspectives - Analysts believe the stock price increase is primarily driven by speculative trading, as the current revenue contribution from the AI computing power business is minimal. Future attention should be on order fulfillment and improvements in traditional business. If performance does not meet expectations, the high valuation may face downward pressure [5].