The Motley Fool·2026-02-12 10:10Core Insights - Eli Lilly and Novo Nordisk are competing in the high-demand weight loss drug market, with Lilly's tirzepatide (Mounjaro, Zepbound) and Novo's semaglutide (Ozempic, Wegovy) leading the way [1][2] Market Demand and Growth - The obesity drug market is projected to reach nearly $100 billion by the end of the decade, driven by high demand for weight loss drugs [2] - Both companies have ramped up production to meet this demand, which previously led to drug shortages [2] Popularity of GLP-1 Drugs - GLP-1 drugs have gained significant popularity, becoming well-known beyond just medical professionals [5] - These drugs help control blood sugar and appetite, leading to substantial weight loss for patients [6] Market Share Dynamics - Novo Nordisk initially led the U.S. market but began losing market share to Eli Lilly in June 2024, with Lilly currently holding 60% of the market [7] Product Performance - In head-to-head trials, Lilly's Zepbound outperformed Novo's Wegovy, with participants losing an average of 50 pounds compared to 33 pounds [9] - Lilly has invested over $50 billion in manufacturing infrastructure since 2020 to support current and future demand [10] Recent Developments - Novo recently received FDA approval for oral Wegovy, which has seen early uptake surpassing expectations, potentially boosting its market position [11] - Lilly's oral weight loss candidate, orforglipron, is under regulatory review, with a decision expected by April 10 [11] Competitive Advantages - Orforglipron may offer a competitive edge as it does not require dietary restrictions, unlike oral Wegovy [12] - Despite Lilly's higher valuation at 45x trailing earnings compared to Novo's 14x, Lilly's market share growth and revenue generation justify the premium [14] Investment Considerations - While Lilly is favored for its dominance in the weight loss market, Novo remains a reasonable investment due to its pricing and potential future growth from oral Wegovy and other pipeline programs [15]