1万亿明日落地！买断式逆回购密集加量，短期降准可能性下降

Core Viewpoint - The People's Bank of China (PBOC) is implementing significant liquidity injections through reverse repos to maintain a stable financial environment ahead of the Spring Festival, indicating a supportive monetary policy stance for economic recovery [1][3][4]. Group 1: Liquidity Operations - In February, the PBOC announced a 10 trillion yuan reverse repo operation scheduled for February 13, with a six-month term, to ensure ample liquidity in the banking system [1]. - The total mid-term liquidity maturing in February amounts to 15 trillion yuan, including 7 trillion yuan in three-month reverse repos, 5 trillion yuan in six-month reverse repos, and 3 trillion yuan in Medium-term Lending Facility (MLF) [1][2]. - The PBOC has already conducted an 8 trillion yuan three-month reverse repo operation on February 4, resulting in a net liquidity injection of 1 trillion yuan, leading to a total net injection of 6 trillion yuan for the month [2]. Group 2: Economic Context and Implications - Analysts suggest that the PBOC's actions are aimed at supporting key projects and maintaining economic momentum, especially with the early issuance of local government bonds and increased loan disbursements expected in the first quarter [3]. - The increase in reverse repo operations reflects a response to heightened liquidity demand due to seasonal factors like the Spring Festival and increased cash withdrawals [3][4]. - The PBOC's strategy indicates a continuation of a supportive monetary policy, with expectations of further liquidity support through MLF and government bond transactions in February [4]. Group 3: Policy Outlook - The recent increase in reverse repo net injections suggests a reduced likelihood of immediate interest rate cuts, as the PBOC is currently in an observation phase following a series of structural policy measures [5]. - Analysts believe that the substantial liquidity injections lessen the urgency for a comprehensive reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut, although it remains a potential tool in the PBOC's policy arsenal [6].