综述丨美国就业数据“注水”难提振市场信心

Core Viewpoint - The recent U.S. non-farm employment data, while showing an increase in job numbers, is viewed as potentially inflated and fails to instill strong market confidence [1][2]. Group 1: Employment Data Analysis - The U.S. Labor Department reported an addition of 130,000 non-farm jobs in January, exceeding market expectations of 70,000 and the previous month's 50,000 [1]. - The benchmark data for new non-farm jobs for 2025 was significantly revised down from 584,000 to 181,000, marking the lowest annual job growth in over 20 years, which raises questions about the reliability of the January data [2]. - Structural issues in the U.S. job market persist, with new job additions concentrated in a few sectors like healthcare, indicating ongoing challenges in the overall employment landscape [2]. Group 2: Market Reactions and Federal Reserve Implications - The perceived "watered-down" data presents challenges for the Federal Reserve in making monetary policy decisions, as the reliability of economic indicators is in question [3]. - The market currently anticipates that the Federal Reserve will maintain the current benchmark interest rate, with a probability of 94.6% for no change in the March meeting, a significant increase from 79.9% the previous day [3].