原料高位震荡、下游待启，磷酸一铵春节后行情怎么走？

Core Viewpoint - The ammonium phosphate market is expected to maintain stability post-Spring Festival, with prices likely to remain firm due to high raw material costs and steady supply, despite potential fluctuations in demand from downstream compound fertilizer manufacturers [1][4][7]. Price Summary - As of January, the domestic spot price of ammonium phosphate averaged 3850 yuan, reflecting a month-on-month increase of 2.20% and a year-on-year increase of 28.88% [2][5]. - The price of sulfur, a key raw material, peaked at 4370 yuan per ton before falling to 4130 yuan, marking a decline of 5.49% [1][4]. Supply Summary - In February, domestic ammonium phosphate production is projected to be 930,000 tons, a decrease of 33,600 tons or 3.49% month-on-month, primarily due to fewer days in the month [1][4]. - The industry capacity utilization rate is expected to be 65% in early February, which is 7 percentage points higher than the average of previous years and at a three-year high [6]. Demand Summary - As of early February, the capacity utilization rate for compound fertilizers was 41.79%, showing a year-on-year increase of 15.45 percentage points [6]. - Downstream inventory for compound fertilizers was reported at 749,300 tons, a slight decrease of 630 tons or 0.83% [3][6]. Market Outlook - The ammonium phosphate market is anticipated to experience limited price fluctuations, with a likelihood of maintaining a stable outlook post-Spring Festival, contingent on the purchasing behavior of downstream compound fertilizer companies [1][7].