一季度中国经济前瞻：宏观政策保持稳健扩张

Core Viewpoint - The IMF has adjusted the global economic growth forecast for 2026 to 3.3%, an increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous prediction, with China remaining a key driver of global economic growth [2][10]. Economic Outlook - KPMG's report anticipates that under current policy support, China's domestic economic growth will remain stable in 2026, with an expected recovery in demand as macro policies are effectively implemented [2][10]. - The report indicates that China's economy is projected to reach 140 trillion yuan in 2025, with a real GDP growth of 5.0%, achieving the target growth rate set at the beginning of the year [3][11]. Supply and Demand Dynamics - The economy is experiencing structural disparities in supply and demand, with traditional industries facing challenges due to intense competition and slow capacity clearance, leading to weak demand and supply expansion [3][11]. - The report highlights the need for coordinated efforts from both demand and supply sides, as well as improvements in institutional mechanisms and external environments to promote sustained recovery in domestic demand [4][12]. Investment and Consumption - Investment in key areas and major projects needs to be supported to stabilize effective investment, while enhancing social welfare investments to stimulate consumer potential [4][12]. - The retail sales of consumer goods are expected to grow by 3.7% in 2025, with a slight increase of 0.2 percentage points from the previous year, indicating a shift towards quality and experiential consumption [4][13]. Policy Support and Financial Tools - Continuous policy support is essential to consolidate the recovery foundation and stimulate growth, including innovative use of financial tools such as special government bonds and policy financing [5][15]. - The establishment of the National Venture Capital Guidance Fund aims to attract diverse capital to support the development of strategic emerging industries [6][15]. Macroeconomic Management - Fiscal policy should play a more prominent role in counter-cyclical adjustments, focusing on effectively expanding domestic demand and improving policy implementation effectiveness [7][16]. - The report emphasizes the importance of enhancing the business environment and supporting enterprises in expanding international markets to create a virtuous cycle of income growth and domestic demand expansion [7][16].