预算不确定性拖累企业与消费者，英国经济在2025年末表现疲软

Economic Performance - The UK economy showed minimal growth in the last quarter of 2025, with a quarter-on-quarter increase of only 0.1%, matching the growth rate of the third quarter [1][3] - For the entire year of 2025, the UK economy grew by 1.3%, an improvement from 1.1% in the previous year, marking the highest annual growth rate since 2022 [4] Government and Market Reactions - Uncertainty surrounding the government budget announcement in late November led to a cautious approach from businesses and consumers, impacting investment and spending [2][5] - The Chancellor of the Exchequer, Rachel Reeves, was expected to potentially break a key promise not to raise income tax rates, but the actual tax increases were lower than market expectations [5] Future Projections - Economic indicators suggest a potential recovery in early 2026, but overall growth for the year is not expected to rise significantly [5] - The Bank of England has revised its growth forecasts downward for the next two years, lowering the 2026 growth estimate from 1.2% to 0.9% and the 2027 estimate from 1.6% to 1.5% [2][5] Political Implications - The Labour government's support has significantly declined since winning the election in 2024, partly due to economic performance [2][5] - The government aims to lower the main interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.50% in March, in light of weak growth and expected significant inflation reduction [5] Economic Strategy - Simon Pittaway, a senior economist at the Resolution Foundation, emphasized the need for the government to double down on its growth agenda to achieve sustainable economic recovery that benefits the public [3][6]