Group 1: U.S. Labor Market Data - The U.S. non-farm payrolls increased by 130,000 in January, significantly exceeding the market expectation of 65,000, marking the largest increase since April 2025 [1][5] - The unemployment rate unexpectedly decreased to 4.3%, compared to the expected and previous value of 4.4% [1][5] - Average hourly earnings rose by 0.4% month-on-month, surpassing the expected 0.3% and the revised previous value of 0.1% [1][5] - The labor force participation rate slightly increased to 62.5%, slightly better than expected [1][5] - The report revised the total employment growth for 2025 from an initial estimate of 584,000 down to 181,000, indicating a more significant weakness in the labor market than previously recognized [1][5] Group 2: Federal Reserve and Interest Rate Expectations - Following the labor market data release, traders reduced bets on interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve, fully pricing in a rate cut in July instead of June [1][5] - The strong performance of the U.S. non-farm payrolls report has cooled expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, supporting the dollar index [2][8] Group 3: European Economic Indicators - The European Central Bank (ECB) indicated that wage growth in the Eurozone is expected to accelerate in the second half of the year, supporting the view that interest rates can remain stable [6] - Wage growth is projected to rise by 2.7% year-on-year in Q4, up from 2.6% in Q3, although still below the peak of over 5% in 2024 [6] - The ECB noted that the upward trajectory of wages is related to the diminishing mechanical downward effects from large one-time payments issued in 2024 but not in 2025, which are expected to dissipate by 2026 [6]
邦达亚洲:非农报告意外表现强劲 美元指数小幅收涨
Xin Lang Cai Jing·2026-02-12 12:40